CARRY-ANSWER-V1fixture asOf 2026-10-12T09:48:37ZStatic snapshot — not a live tick

Is the BTC carry paying right now?

Free answer from the last committed fixture of the nightly carry lab (hl-carry-current-run, prototype #44): the sign and age of the current funding regime, computed from the trailing 720h of public Hyperliquid fundingHistory. The live number — per call — is one paid endpoint away, below.

verdict: young_regime · market data, not investment advice

Yes — funding is positive right now, but the current run is under a day old.

right now	sign + · 18h old · 1.56 bps accrued over the run
trailing 30d	APR 8.65% · 91.68% of hours positive · 721 hourly obs · longest same-sign run 210h
context	current run is 0.88× the month mean · worst 7d raw: risk_free_7d (embedded #27, same rows) · longest negative stretch 18h

Static snapshot. Answered from the last committed fixture, captured 2026-10-12T09:48:37Z — not a live tick. Funding prints hourly, so the number above is from that moment; the page re-snapshots on the next tinker firing.

The live number, per call

https://x402centre.roverbot.workers.dev/data/hl/carry?coin=BTC

0.01 USD per call — 5000 atomic USDC on eip155:8453, payTo 0xAA08C81A382E0a1F9b472E93c894330205b4FfE6.

catalog as of 2026-10-06 (captured 2026-10-12T14:03:00Z) — verify the price before paying · 12 real buyer calls on this path in the last 30 days (monitors excluded, 4 distinct callers) · the exact x402 402 dance · proof of payment

machine-only: the committed snapshot (every field + source shas)

{
 "answer": {
  "apr_30d": 0.08648321056310752,
  "headline": "Yes \u2014 funding is positive right now, but the current run is under a day old.",
  "longest_negative_h": 18,
  "mean_hourly_30d": 9.872512621359306e-06,
  "n": 721,
  "positive_share": 0.9167822468793343,
  "record_max_run_age_h": 210,
  "risk_verdict": "risk_free_7d",
  "run_accrued_bps": 1.5644189999999998,
  "run_age_h": 18,
  "run_mean_hourly": 8.691216666666666e-06,
  "run_sign": 1,
  "strength": 0.8803449537114907,
  "tone": "green",
  "verdict": "young_regime"
 },
 "capturedAt": "2026-10-14T09:44:41Z",
 "coin": "BTC",
 "fixture": {
  "asOf": "2026-10-12T09:48:37Z",
  "asOf_ms": 1791798517122,
  "n_raw": 744,
  "raw_sha": "51133beb71a7b66229d996192da1d7e26feaa8f652ad8f8093e2110fe2e1c434",
  "source": "prototypes/hl-carry-current-run/fixtures/btc_live (prototype #44, committed; replayed offline)"
 },
 "kind": "carrydesk-answer-page",
 "pointer": {
  "asset": "USDC",
  "atomicUnits": "5000",
  "catalog_asOf": "2026-10-06",
  "catalog_capturedAt": "2026-10-12T14:03:00Z",
  "challenge_amount": "5000",
  "challenge_capturedAt": "2026-10-12T14:03:01Z",
  "demand_30d": 12,
  "distinct_callers": 4,
  "howto": "/prototypes/board-paypath/",
  "network": "eip155:8453",
  "path": "/data/hl/carry",
  "payTo": "0xAA08C81A382E0a1F9b472E93c894330205b4FfE6",
  "price": "0.01 USD",
  "proof_of_payment": "/prototypes/settle-ticker/",
  "query": "coin=BTC",
  "source": "committed snapshots: x402-board (live /catalog + /stats) + board-paypath (live 402 challenge) \u2014 no live fetch here",
  "url": "https://x402centre.roverbot.workers.dev/data/hl/carry?coin=BTC",
  "window_days": 30
 },
 "question": "Is the BTC carry paying right now?"
}

method — answer = the #44 module's offline replay of the committed raw fixture (744 hourly rows → trailing-720h inclusive cut, 721 obs): current run = the trailing same-sign non-zero observations (a zero breaks the run; a zero newest rate means no current run), age = run length; month = the same rows (APR = mean hourly × 8760); record = the longest same-sign run anywhere, first maximum wins; strength = run mean ÷ month mean (NULL on a zero month mean); worst-7d raw verdict = the embedded #27 risk window over the same rows (risk_free_7d = every sliding 168-obs 7d window sums positive). Fixture: sha256 51133beb71a7b662… · prototypes/hl-carry-current-run/fixtures/btc_live (prototype #44, committed; replayed offline). Pointer: x402-board catalog snapshot (asOf 2026-10-06, captured 2026-10-12T14:03:00Z) + board-paypath live 402 challenge (captured 2026-10-12T14:03:01Z). Static snapshot — the answer is pinned to the fixture asOf above.